I’m an Economist and Statistician, a PHD Student in Economics at the Hebrew University.
I mostly do empirical work, my primary research interests are Political Economics, Public Economics, Health and Demographics, Data Science, Economics of Israel and Economic History.

Peer Reviewed Publications

• Ariel Karlinsky & Orsola Torrisi (2023). The Casualties of War: An Excess Mortality Estimate of Lives Lost in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. Population Research and Policy Review

• William Msemburi, Ariel Karlinsky, Victoria Knutson, Serge Aleshin-Guendel, Somnath Chatterji & Jon Wakefield (2023). The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature

• Victoria Knutson, Serge Aleshin-Guendel, Ariel Karlinsky, William Msemburi & Jon Wakefield (2023). Estimating Global and Country-Specific Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic. The Annals of Applied Statistics

• Mahan Ghafari, Oliver J. Watson, Ariel Karlinsky, Luca Ferretti & Aris Katzourakis (2022). A framework for reconstructing SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics using excess mortality data. Nature Communications

• Ariel Karlinsky (2022). Estimating national excess mortality from subnational data: application to Argentina. Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública

• Ariel Karlinsky & Dmitry Kobak (2021). Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset. eLife

• Claude Berrebi, Ariel Karlinsky & Hanan Yonah (2020). Individual and Community Behavioral Responses to Natural Disasters. Natural Hazards 105, 1541–1569

• Ariel Karlinsky & Michael Sarel (2020). Estimating the Cost of Raising Children in Israel. Israeli Economic Review 18(1). (Originally published in Hebrew as Cost Estimation of Raising Children in Israel. The Economic Quarterly 63 (3/4))

Work in Progress

• Ariel Karlinsky & Moses Shayo. On the Manipulation of Information by Governments. Under Review

• Ariel Karlinsky, Tom Sadeh, Eran Yogev & Michael Sarel. Complete Fiscal Accounts: Households Net Transfers in Israel. Under Review

• Ariel Karlinsky. International Completeness of Death Registration. Demographic Research (forthcoming)

• Ariel Karlinsky. Supply, Demand and the Burden of Taxation

• Ariel Karlinsky. The Political Implications of Wrong Information

Other Publications

• Ariel Karlinsky (2021). Ultra-Orthodox Men in Israel: Educational and Labor Market Outcomes From a Longitudinal Perspective. Kohelet Working Paper 70. (Hebrew)

• Ariel Karlinsky (2021). Earned Income Tax Credit in Israel: Recipents and Amounts in Adminstrative vs. Survey data. Kohelet Policy Paper. (Hebrew)

• Ariel Karlinsky, Michael Sarel & Yoav Mazeh (2020). Child Support in Israel: Determination and Allocation between Parents. Kohelet Policy Paper 67. (Hebrew)

• Ariel Karlinsky (2020). Once More Unto the Lockdown: The Corona Virus in Israel. Kohelet Policy Paper. (Hebrew).

• Ariel Karlinsky (2020). Elderly-Only Quarantine to Cope with the Corona Virus: Implications for the Israeli Economy and the Quality of Life of the Elderly Population. Kohelet Policy Paper. (Hebrew, English Abstract)

• Ariel Karlinsky (2020). The Economic Impact of Shutting Down Schools for Children aged 5 to 9. Kohelet Policy Paper. (Hebrew)

• Asher Meir, Ziv Rubin & Ariel Karlinsky (2018). The Urban Settlement in Israel: Past Present and Future. Kohelet Chart Book 2018. (Hebrew)

Additional Activities

I’m the creator and maintainer of the World Mortality Dataset, an open dataset that tracks all-cause-mortality data from around the world.

I’m a member of the World Health Organization Technical Advisory Group on COVID-19 Mortality Assessment.

I’m a member of The Israeli Economic History Association and Midaat, an NGO dedicated to promoting public health via evidence based medicine and practices.

Check out the blog Gal Kabiri and I write together: The Artist & the Merchant, where we discuss economics, statistics and other aspects of social sciences with illustrations. (Hebrew)

Check out the podcast I host my with my collegues Itay Cishnevsky and Ori Katz : Creative Destruction, where we have talks with leading economists and other social scientists in Israel. (Hebrew)

Acknowledgments

The following is a list of published works where I’m formally acknowledged for helping. Though not my own, they are an important part of my contributions and I’m happy to assist colleagues in my areas of expertise.

• Evers, N. F. G., Evers, G. W., Greenfield, P. M., Yuan, Q., Gutierrez, F. B., Halim, G., & Du, H. (2024). COVID-19 Increased Mortality Salience, Collectivism, and Subsistence Activities: A Theory-Driven Analysis of Online Adaptation in the United States, Indonesia, Mexico, and Japan. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology

• Ghafari, M., Hosseinpour, S., Rezaee-Zavareh, M.S. et al. (2023) A quantitative evaluation of the impact of vaccine roll-out rate and coverage on reducing deaths: insights from the first 2 years of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran. BMC Medicine

• Kasper P Kepp, Jonas Björk, Vasilis Kontis, et al (2022) Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020−2021 International Journal of Epidemiology.

• Levin AT, Owusu-Boaitey N, Pugh S, et al (2022). Assessing the burden of COVID-19 in developing countries: systematic review, meta-analysis and public policy implications BMJ Global Health.

• Katz, O. (2022). The Israeli Miracle: Human Capital, Democracy and Illusions (Hebrew).

• Kobak, D. (2022). Underdispersion: A statistical anomaly in reported Covid data. Significance, 19: 10-13.

• Leffler, C. T., Lykins V, J. D., Das, S., Yang, E., & Konda, S. (2022). Preliminary Analysis of Excess Mortality in India During the COVID-19 Pandemic. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 106(5), 1507-1510.

• Campbell, H., & Gustafson, P. (2021). Inferring the COVID-19 infection fatality rate in the community-dwelling population: A simple Bayesian evidence synthesis of seroprevalence study data and imprecise mortality data. Epidemiology and Infection, 149, E243.

Reviewer

List (in alphabetical order) of journals that I have peer-reviewed manuscripts for:

Economic Quarterly, European Journal of Epidemiology, Health Security, International Journal of Epidemiology, Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, Nature Medicine, PLOS-ONE, Preventive Medicine Reports, Science Advances, Scientific Reports.